Yemeni Activist Awarded Nobel Prize

Tawakul Karman, Democracy activist and member of Islah, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize Yesterday. Great news that I hope will bring more attention to the plight of the average Yemeni.

Foundation for the Protection of the Arabian Leopard in Yemen - Success!

As Stephanie first noted on our blog here, the Foundation for the Protection of the Arabian Leopard in Yemen (FPALY) has been running a funding drive via Kickstarter this month. If you gave, I'll bet you received the email reproduced below from David Stanton, FPALY's Executive Director.

But just because FPLAY met their minimum goal doesn't mean that advocacy for this funding drive needs to stop. As David mentions, there are other projects moving forward that he would like to pursue, and there are administrative costs to running the FPALY office. Please continue to give right up to 11:59PM on September 30th!

FPALY's Kickstater webpage is located here. Thanks to everyone who found FPALY here and gave!

Dear Night Watch Backers

Laura Kasinof's last Four Articles on Yemen in the NYT

She's a brilliant writer, writing about a beautiful country:

September 17th: Clashes Erupt in Yemen, and a Sit-In Is Attacked

September 18th: Protesters Shot, Starting Battle in Yemen Capital

September 19th: Clashes Erupt for 2nd Day in Yemeni Capital, as Troops Fight Defectors

September 20th: Mortars Fall on Yemeni Capital as Battles Continue

Is Anybody Listening?!?!

Marc Lynch has just published an article in Foreign Policy called "The Costs of Ignoring Yemen." Sadly, I think the USG will continue to ignore Yemen, as the costs incurred by the current administration are negligible.

Today, Sana'a International Airport was closed for the first time since demonstrations began early in the year. Yesterday, Yemeni security forces opened fire on peaceful protesters with anti-aircraft weaponry.

Yemen’s Leader Vows to Return Soon and Defies Calls for His Ouster

Wow! This is such exciting news!

Yemeni Air Force Bombs Yemeni Republican Guard

As reported by the Yemen Post:

“The government did not stand quiet when the guards refused orders to clash with tribes and officials in the republican guards felt it was necessary that those who disobey orders are killed,” the official said.

The big question, however, is whether the pilots were Yemeni or, as reported, Iraqi mercenaries doing the regime's dirty work.

A Really Really Secret Campaign in Yemen

As I have mentioned in earlier posts, it sure is hard for the US to keep a secret if it's always in the habit of telling everybody what's going on with the expectation that they'll keep it to themselves.

Now, it seems, stringers for WAPO have been told where the secret base is. Is anyone surprised? The relevant passage in the story follows:

At the same time, the agency is building a desert airstrip so that it can begin flying armed drones over Yemen. The facility, which is scheduled to be completed in September, is designed to shield the CIA’s aircraft, and their sophisticated surveillance equipment, from observers at busier regional military hubs such as Djibouti, where the JSOC drones are based.

The Washington Post is withholding the specific location of the CIA facility at the administration’s request.

So who's surprised? I am. I had predicted we'd all know where it was by the end of July, and I think the Administration will probably be able to keep the secret past this Sunday.

The Best Analysis on Yemeni Protests (and the JMP's Role) Thus Far

This excellent article by Professor Yadav seeks to make an important distinction that seems to be lost in the close to six months of protests that have rocked Yemen: the JMP is not the Janus face of the ruling regime. My favorite excerpt is this:

For over a decade, the organized political opposition has sought to substantially reform the political regime in Yemen and to replace Saleh through legal and non-violent mechanisms. This opposition, the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), is itself a cross-ideological umbrella of religious parties, socialists, and other leftist nationalists. Indeed, it is so ideologically diverse that issues of procedural and institutional reform have, for a long time, been all that the groups can agree to pursue in common. The Youth revolutionaries' critique of the JMP has centered on its gradual and incremental approach, and its perceived neglect of grassroots. Alienated over time from constituencies outside of Sana'a, the JMP had difficulty articulating a common position on the Huthi crisis, all but missed the emergence of the Southern movement, and was able to carve out only minimal concessions from an encroaching regime. In other words, until a mobilizing push came from Cairo and Tunis and they began to organize (reformist, but not revolutionary) protests of their own in January, the JMP appeared to be teetering on obsolescence.

I want to thank Stacey Philbrick Yadav for an incredibly insightful article. It sheds light on the potential for the opposition in Yemen to play a part in the future success of Yemen.

"We did not expect Washington's stance to be so weak"

Looks like Saleh is set to return to Yemen this Sunday to ensure that "the ruling family" retains their portion of power, come what may. If this article truly gets at the heart of the Obama Administration's tepidity, what a sad state of affairs.

A Really Secret Campaign in Yemen?

Today, the NYT reported that "The Central Intelligence Agency is building a secret air base in the Middle East to serve as a launching pad for strikes in Yemen using armed drones." They received this secret information from an "American official" yesterday. As with last Wednesday's story, it shows that US officials are really good at keeping secrets.

My guess? We'll all know where the secret base is before the end of July.

Russia Today's CrossTalk: Yemen Descends

Secret Campaign in Yemen?

The NYT ran a story yesterday, ironically entitled "U.S. Is Intensifying a Secret Campaign of Yemen Airstrikes."

Secret from whom? Certainly NOT the Yemenis!

In the story, it is related that Abu Ali al-Harithi was killed by American jets. No, not that Abu Ali al-Harithi. He was killed by a drone strike in Yemen back in 2002.

Interesting to consider: when the first al-Harithi was killed, it came out that the US had been behind the strike after the Yemeni government had assured its people that they had run the operation. This is because senior people in the US government couldn't keep their mouths shut. There was an incredible amount of blowback.

Could this be déjà vu all over again?.

It is only days since President Saleh left the country. Yemen is on the verge of civil war. Yemenis already have a deep sense of mistrust for the US. Is this really the right time for a story of this nature to come out? Should we be telling Yemenis that, while most of them face the most trying time of their existence, the US will remain and potentially infringe upon their sovereignty, regardless of the political outcome in their country?

I don't think so.

Saleh Gone for the Moment

The question is whether he will return or not. There have been reports that as much as 80% of the military has now defected, and that the remainder of the ruling family left in Yemen may be in trouble (remembering that Hamid al-Ahmar had said they should leave for their own protection months ago.)

Hamza Shargabi Video

Hamza Shargabi is a doctor (and freedom activist) in Yemen. I think anyone interested in Yemen will find value in this video. You may also follow his blog or subscribe to his YouTube Channel.

Must See Yemeni Website

If anyone wants to understand the impact of the recent fighting in Yemen, they need only go to http://yemenrightsmonitor.blogspot.com/. Here you will find commentary as well as very graphic images of the needless damage wrought as a result of Saleh's unwillingness to leave.

"Gulf News" Tells Saleh: Irhal!

The president of Yemen has made a serious mistake in rejecting the GCC's plan for a transition government to take over that troubled country. Ali Abdullah Saleh refused to sign the plan two days ago, throwing the whole process into doubt. His actions raise the prospect of serious violence engulfing the country within days.

Incredibly Sad News out of Sana'a

It's well known that Yemen is the second-most highly armed nation in the world, trailing only the good ole USA. That is why this report out of Sana'a in today's NYT is so sad.

Not only did pro-Saleh protesters put the lives of foreign diplomats at risk on Sunday, but they've engaged tribesmen of the Al-Ahmar clan in clashes in the capitol using tanks and RPG's. This is not what the average Yemeni deserves, and it is Saleh who history will declare the central cause of what looks like an impending civil war:

The protesters also have insisted that their movement is a nonviolent one. But as tensions grow between Mr. Saleh’s supporters and the tribesmen allied with the political opposition, the prospects of a nonviolent transfer of power grow dimmer... tensions have grown so bad that fighting could break out even without government provocation.

Obama Refers to Yemen in Presidential Address

I truly appreciate President Obama making the comment he made yesterday about Yemen (and, in particular, about President Ali Abdullah Saleh):

Now, our opposition to Iran's intolerance and Iran's repressive measures, as well as its illicit nuclear program and its support of terror, is well known. But if America is to be credible, we must acknowledge that at times our friends in the region have not all reacted to the demands for consistent change -- with change that's consistent with the principles that I've outlined today. That's true in Yemen, where President Saleh needs to follow through on his commitment to transfer power.

However, I found the speech to be pretty vanilla, and the idea that we are going to engage the Middle East in a different way moving forward a bit specious. President Obama said within the speech that

It will be the policy of the United States to promote reform across the region, and to support transitions to democracy. That effort begins in Egypt and Tunisia... both nations can set a strong example through free and fair elections, a vibrant civil society, accountable and effective democratic institutions, and responsible regional leadership. But our support must also extend to nations where transitions have yet to take place."

Love him or not, it was our past president, George W. Bush, who heralded this new age in American foreign policy with a speech he gave at the NED in 2003. He said:

Therefore, the United States has adopted a new policy, a forward strategy of freedom in the Middle East. This strategy requires the same persistence and energy and idealism we have shown before. And it will yield the same results. As in Europe, as in Asia, as in every region of the world, the advance of freedom leads to peace.

Will Saleh Fall Redux

The Atlantic Wire comments on Saleh's staying power in Yemen, publishing commentary from specialists on the nation.

Will Saleh Fall?

I’ve been watching the ongoings in Yemen over the last two weeks (since President Saleh refused to sign the GCC brokered agreement on the transfer of power) with uncharacteristic pessimism.

While academics (with far more wisdom on the situation) may still believe that Saleh will ultimately go, I’m no longer so sure.

Fresh from his success in killing Osama, President Obama seems to be walking a slippery slope by okaying a failed targeted assasination of Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen. The United States government - as directed by President Obama - is sending the absolutely wrong message to Yemeni protesters with this move. Only six days later, Salih had another dozen protesters killed (most in Sana'a).

Everyone knows that previous to the Arab uprisings Saleh only had a tenuous grip on the country. It was widely reported that, apart from oil and LNG facilities, the regime was only capable of governing a few cities. With so many people focused on AQAP and the security implications for the "western world," the question has yet to be asked as to whether the internal security situation relative to governance has changed to any significant degree?

Regardless of the defection of top generals, I don't think it has much. And from the looks of things, I think Saleh might agree.